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There’s No Ice on Erie: The Effects of A Changing Climate on Lake Erie

Writer's picture: Bretton LakesBretton Lakes

broken ice on the shores of Lake Erie

Introduction: Climate Change on Lake Erie


Growing up in Ohio, winter was a season of magic and adventure, especially along the shores of Lake Erie. As the temperatures plummeted and the lake transformed into a frozen expanse, it became a playground for those of us brave enough to embrace the cold. I remember snowmobiling across the vast, icy surface, the roar of the engine cutting through the still winter air as we raced toward the Bass Islands. We’d set up ice shacks, drill through thick layers of ice, and drop lines into the frigid water below, waiting for the telltale tug of a walleye. These memories are etched into my mind as some of the most exhilarating moments of my life. The frozen lake wasn’t just a landscape; it was a way of life, a cornerstone of Ohio winters. But now, those days feel like relics of a past that’s slipping further away with each passing winter.


The Vanishing Ice


In recent years, Lake Erie has struggled to freeze as it once did. The robust, dependable ice cover that defined winters on the lake is becoming increasingly rare. Snowmobiling to the Bass Islands or setting up an ice shack to fish for walleye has turned into a wistful dream rather than an annual tradition. The winters are still cold, but the lake no longer freezes over with the same consistency or thickness that it did decades ago. The shimmering, frozen expanse I once knew is often replaced by open water and thin ice patches that are far too dangerous to venture onto.


Local fishermen and outdoor enthusiasts have noticed this change, too. Businesses that once thrived during ice fishing season are struggling to adapt. Winter festivals centered around lake activities have been canceled more frequently, leaving communities to grapple with the loss of traditions that once brought people together.


Ice chunks working their way up on the shoreline of Lake Erie

The Data Tells the Story


The changes I’ve witnessed aren’t just anecdotal; they’re backed by data. According to records from the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), Lake Erie’s ice cover has seen a dramatic decline over the last several decades. Historically, Lake Erie has been the most likely of the Great Lakes to freeze completely due to its shallow depth. However, in the past five years, full ice coverage has become exceedingly rare. Let’s take a closer look at the data:


  • Winter of 2018-2019: Ice coverage peaked at just 90%, a far cry from the consistent full freezes of previous decades.


  • Winter of 2019-2020: The lake barely froze at all, with maximum ice coverage of only 15%, one of the lowest levels on record.


  • Winter of 2020-2021: Ice coverage reached about 40%, but the ice was unstable and thin, making it unsafe for traditional winter activities.


  • Winter of 2021-2022: Similar to the previous year, ice coverage hovered around 35%, with frequent thaws disrupting the formation of solid ice.


  • Winter of 2022-2023: Ice coverage hit a meager 25%, continuing the trend of diminished and unreliable freezing.


This data highlights a clear and troubling pattern: Lake Erie’s winters are warming, and the ice is disappearing. The once-reliable freeze-ups that brought entire communities onto the ice are now a rare occurrence, and each passing winter seems to bring further decline.


The Role of Climate Change


The root cause of these changes is climate change. As global temperatures rise, winters in the Great Lakes region are becoming shorter and milder. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), average winter temperatures around Lake Erie have increased by nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit since the mid-20th century. This warming trend directly impacts the lake’s ability to freeze.


One significant factor is the increase in water temperatures. Lake Erie is entering winter with warmer baseline temperatures, which delays the onset of ice formation. Even when freezing temperatures arrive, they’re often interrupted by warmer periods that melt any ice that’s formed. These freeze-thaw cycles make it nearly impossible for the thick, stable ice required for winter recreation to develop.


Additionally, shorter winters mean less time for the lake to cool. Climate models suggest that the region will continue to see a trend of milder, wetter winters in the coming decades, further eroding the conditions needed for significant ice formation. This shift is not only reshaping Lake Erie but also altering ecosystems and industries that depend on consistent winters.


a cold winter moring on the shores of Lake Erie

Ripple Effects on the Ecosystem


The loss of ice cover doesn’t just impact winter adventures; it has profound effects on Lake Erie’s ecosystem. Ice cover acts as a protective barrier, shielding the lake from harsh winter winds and limiting evaporation. Without it, the lake is more exposed, leading to:


  • Increased evaporation: This contributes to lower water levels and alters the lake’s thermal structure, affecting aquatic life. With more open water, the lake loses heat more rapidly, creating a feedback loop that disrupts seasonal patterns.


  • Disrupted fish habitats: Species like walleye rely on stable winter conditions for spawning. The absence of ice can disrupt their reproductive cycles, threatening the lake’s delicate balance. Anglers are already reporting changes in fish behavior and availability.


  • More frequent algal blooms: Warmer winters and reduced ice cover can exacerbate algal blooms, a persistent issue for Lake Erie that impacts water quality and marine life. These blooms choke oxygen from the water, leading to "dead zones" that are inhospitable to fish and other aquatic organisms.


The Cultural Loss


For those of us who grew up on or near Lake Erie, the decline in ice cover is more than an environmental issue; it’s a cultural loss. The winter activities that defined our childhood, snowmobiling, ice fishing, and the simple joy of walking on a frozen lake—are fading away. Local economies that once thrived on winter tourism are feeling the strain, as fewer people visit the region for activities that depend on reliable ice.


Beyond the economic impact, the loss is deeply personal. Families who once gathered on the ice now look for other ways to spend their winters, and the stories we pass down to younger generations feel increasingly disconnected from present-day realities. The lake, once a source of unity and tradition, now serves as a reminder of what we’re losing.


Adapting to a Changing Reality


While it’s clear that Lake Erie’s winters are changing, there’s still hope for the future. Communities and organizations around the Great Lakes are working to address the challenges posed by climate change. Efforts include:


  • Reducing greenhouse gas emissions: Local governments and environmental groups are advocating for policies to reduce carbon emissions and transition to renewable energy sources. Initiatives like wind farms along the lakeshore are gaining momentum.


  • Restoring natural habitats: Initiatives to restore wetlands and shorelines can help mitigate some of the impacts of climate change by improving water quality and providing resilience against extreme weather. These projects also create refuges for wildlife struggling to adapt.


  • Promoting sustainable tourism: As traditional winter activities become less viable, communities are exploring alternative ways to attract visitors, such as birdwatching, winter hiking, and other low-impact activities. Efforts to reimagine winter recreation are essential for maintaining local economies.


broken ice on Lake Erie's shoreline

A Call to Action


The disappearance of Lake Erie’s ice is a stark reminder of the broader impacts of climate change. It’s up to all of us to take action—whether by reducing our carbon footprints, supporting conservation efforts, or advocating for policies that address climate change. While I mourn the loss of the frozen lake of my youth, I’m hopeful that through collective action, we can preserve the beauty and vitality of Lake Erie for future generations.


Winter on Lake Erie may never be the same, but that doesn’t mean the fight is over. The lake has given us so much, and now it’s our turn to give back. Let’s ensure that the story of Lake Erie’s winters doesn’t end with open water and melting ice. Instead, let it be a story of resilience and renewal, a testament to what we can achieve when we come together to protect the places we love.

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